70% of Americans Believe Bitcoin Returns to All-Time Highs in Five Years: Survey

Simon Chandler | July 18, 2023

Introduction

The majority of Americans (70%) believe Bitcoin will return to its all-time high of $69,044 within five years, according to an exclusive survey of US residents by CryptoVantage.

Specifically 47% believe that Bitcoin will return to its all-time high in the next five years while 23% think it will happen this year. Only 9% were convinced Bitcoin will never return to its all-time high.

Concerns about inflation also played a big factor in the survey with 54% believing that inflation worries will significantly drive more people to invest in cryptocurrencies.

This survey arrives as high inflation continues to trouble the US and global economy, with many nations still seeing rates of well over 5%. At the same time, bitcoin (BTC) and certain other major cryptocurrencies have enjoyed modest recoveries in recent months, despite major regulatory actions being taken in the US against exchanges such as Binance and Coinbase. Together, these two trends lend weight to the suggestion that inflation fears are leading people towards crypto, with bitcoin long having a reputation as a store of value and hedge against rising consumer prices.

Interestingly 46% of Americans also believe that Ethereum (ETH) has the best chance among altcoins of overtaking bitcoin, while they are also concerned that volatility and market crashes could negatively impact crypto’s future value.

Bitcoin’s Comeback and the Rise of the Underdogs

CryptoVantage’s survey polled 1,000 Americans who had bought at least some cryptocurrency in the past five years, with a particular focus on discovering which factors tend to encourage crypto investment and – by extension – prices.

One of the key questions was whether Bitcoin would ever return to all-time highs. Only 23% of respondents expect it to do so “within the next year”, with the most popular response – at 47% – belonging to “within the next 5 years”.

Still, the fact that 78% of people in total believe that BTC will eventually set a new ATH is heartening, as is the fact that only 9% believe it will “never” equal or top $69,044. And in terms of what might help the cryptocurrency regain former levels, it should be noted that the next Bitcoin halving is due to take place by the end of April 2024.

Historically, halvings – in which the block reward paid to miners is halved – have preceded bull markets, as witnessed in 2012, 2016 and 2020. However, the expansionary markets following these halvings have usually arrived a year later (2013, 2017 and 2021), so the next halving event may not help BTC reach new highs until 2025.

Bitcoin isn’t the only cryptocurrency in the market, however, and the survey suggests that some investors believe other coins may supersede BTC during the next bull run. In response to another question, Ethereum (ETH) was singled out as the most likely cryptocurrency to surpass bitcoin, with 46% responding that it has a better chance than other altcoins of doing so. The next most popular response was Dogecoin (DOGE), with 21% saying that it has the best chance of flipping bitcoin in terms of market cap (price x supply). Interestingly, this rises to 25% for women alone, with only 16% of men thinking that DOGE has the best chance of eclipsing BTC.

However, the next response in terms of popularity was “none of the above,” at 16%, suggesting that opinion is quite mixed on which altcoins are best placed to succeed in the future. Also, it should be noted that the question asks which alt has “the best chance” of surpassing bitcoin, rather than which ‘will’ surpass BTC, meaning that the survey’s respondents don’t necessarily have strong feelings about whether the original cryptocurrency will be overtaken in the future.

Supply/Demand, Global Financial Trends Influence Crypto Prices Most

The survey also placed an emphasis on understanding what people felt were the major factors impacting the price of crypto.

As the chart below indicates, “supply and demand” was the most commonly cited factor, with 67% of respondents picking it out as one of the main causes of cryptocurrency price movements.

While the interpretation of “supply and demand” can vary, what this generally means in crypto is that a coin with a limited supply is likely to attract more investment than others. This is particularly apparent in the case of bitcoin, which famously has a hard cap of 21 million BTC, something which its supporters believe makes it more desirable than a cryptocurrency with an unlimited supply (e.g. Dogecoin).

BTC’s hard-capped supply does play a big role in its value, which is evidently shown in the fact that it remains the biggest cryptocurrency by quite some margin, with its market cap more than double that of its nearest rival (Ethereum). It’s also evident in how BTC’s ‘dominance’ of the cryptocurrency market has increased this year at a time of relatively high inflation and of banking fears, with its share of the overall market rising from 40% in January to 50% today.

Very close to supply and demand was “global financial trends,” with 58% of survey participants highlighting it as another big factor in cryptocurrency prices. This factor refers to inflation and interest rates, as well as to general economic growth. Both inflation and interest rates have been above average compared to previous years this decade, yet the fact that they can work in opposite directions means that they’ve had a complex effect on the cryptocurrency market.

On the one hand, it’s clear that consecutive rate hikes have dampened investor appetite for risk-on financial assets such as tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, with the Nasdaq (for example) still down by 7% compared to its level around November 2021, when the Federal Reserve began signaling its intention to ramp up rates. On the other hand, there’s also no doubt that inflation does push many people towards cryptocurrency investment, as can be seen in such inflation-wracked economies as Turkey, Argentina, Nigeria and Venezuela.

Viewed in this context, it makes sense that a majority of the survey’s respondents believe that inflation will “significantly drive” people throughout the world towards investing in cryptocurrencies. 54% of people answered yes to this question, while only 22% said that inflation wouldn’t push people towards crypto. This is quite a big difference, suggesting that financial fears have played a key role in popularizing crypto in America and throughout much of the world.

Technological Advancements Also Play a Huge Factor in Valuation

Looking at the other main factors influencing cryptocurrency prices, two more in particular seem to stand out and complement each other. These are “media coverage/news” and “regulatory and policy decisions,” with 37% and 36% of participants (respectively) identifying these two factors as important. Both go together in the sense that they both tend to influence how crypto is perceived by the general public, who can be moved by any mix of hype, euphoria, fear, uncertainty and doubt to make investment decisions.

These two factors also fit with “technical analysis” and “political discourse”, with 29% and 21% of respondents regarding these two as factors in price movements. Here, the relatively low percentages in both cases could perhaps be interpreted as a claim on the part of respondents that they don’t think they’re ever really swayed by an analyst’s or politician’s pronouncements on crypto. Still, their inclusion as factors is significant, because they also highlight how the narrative surrounding the cryptocurrency market is vitally important in changing the mindset of investors.

Lastly, “technological advancements” was chosen as a main factor by 42% of people, putting it in second place behind “supply and demand.” This is interesting, since it’s arguable that bitcoin – the biggest cryptocurrency in the market – hasn’t really benefited from any major technological updates since it was launched in 2009. That said, it’s clear that Ethereum’s Merge, for example, did have a positive impact on its price, with the switch to a staking-based consensus system in September 2022 enabling it to reduce its energy consumption by as much as 99%.

As a whole, it seems there are two primary drivers of cryptocurrency prices. Firstly, there’s economics, both in terms of the cryptocurrencies themselves (i.e. their tokenomics) and in terms of wider economic conditions, with both interacting to shape motivations. Secondly, there’s the wider narrative surrounding crypto, with media coverage and political/regulatory actions serving to change how the public view the market and where it could be going.

Where is Cryptocurrency Heading in the Next Five Years and Beyond?

We asked participants what they expect cryptocurrency prices to do in the next five years, with 37% predicting that levels will be “much higher” than they are now. Adding to this positive picture, another 38% said that prices will be “between the same as now and much higher,” implying that the market will at least retain its value in the next half-decade, if not do better. Such responses were generally consistent across demographics, yet one intriguing variation was that respondents with an annual income of $150,000 or higher were more likely to expect higher prices, with 56% predicting that they’ll be “much higher” by 2028. By contrast, only 32% of people with annual incomes under $25,000 said the same.

Another positive result was that only 16% of all participants suggested that prices will be either the same as they are now or lower. There’s a strong message to be taken from these results, which is that people generally remain favorable towards cryptocurrencies once they’ve invested in them. In other words, few people with experience of crypto turn against it, something which has positive implications for the long-term growth of the sector.

And speaking of growth, this survey question combines with another to suggest that people could be increasingly buying cryptocurrencies in the near future. Namely, we asked participants which factors would influence their own decision to invest in crypto, with 54% reporting that they’d be motivated by the market increasing by at least 25%. Given that 37% of people expect the market to be much higher in five years (and another 38% predicting similar or higher prices), this implies that Americans may be investing more in crypto before long.

Of course, other responses to this question suggest obstacles towards more investment, with 43% of people citing “positive developments around regulation” as something that would make them likelier to invest. Because 2023 has mostly witnessed negative developments in terms of regulation (e.g. the SEC suing Binance and Coinbase), this could be taken to mean that the average investor will be turned off crypto for a while, at least until a stable regulatory environment emerges.

This interpretation is supported by another question, which asked participants about recent events that might have the biggest negative impact on crypto's future value. While the most popular response – at 44% – was “volatility and market crashes,” the next most popular was “SEC suing Binance and Coinbase,” at 21%. Again, this strengthens the concern that investors are currently being scared away by recent news and developments.

Conclusion: Waiting for an Improved Economy

The survey’s six questions reveal several important trends and tendencies about cryptocurrency investment, highlighting the role that economic factors play in motivating people to buy crypto, while also affirming the influence of media narratives, price movements and regulatory actions.

While a majority of people believe that current inflation levels will drive investors towards cryptocurrencies, the survey also suggests that global financial trends will need to become more bullish before people feel confident enough to invest more fully in digital assets. Yet it’s reassuring to report that most people think bitcoin will regain its former highs within the next five years at the latest, and that more than half would be more likely to invest if the cryptocurrency market rises by at least 25%.

Even though respondents are concerned about the fallout from the FTX collapse and the SEC’s recent legal actions, for example, the survey finds them generally hopeful that the cryptocurrency market will recover, sooner or later.

Survey Methodology

The survey fielded questions to 1,000 Americans aged 16 or over. Respondents were chosen randomly and then filtered on the basis of whether they had bought cryptocurrency in the past five years. Once 1,000 had been selected, respondents were then asked seven questions. These were all multiple choice-based questions, with all of them concerning factors which affect cryptocurrency prices and investment. In order to probe for demographic trends, respondents were asked to record their ages and genders, as well as provide other personal information (e.g. education, income, marital status).

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